A brief analysis of the first round of the Season Four Amateur Draft.
Pick 1: Vancouver Canucks select:
Vernon Smith, a 21-year old SP from UNC-Chapel Hill, should be an ace for the Canucks soon. He has outstanding control of his four-pitch arsenal, and looks like he will be outstanding, particularly against right-handed batters.
Grade: A+
Pick 2: Santa Cruz Banana Slugs select:
Rarely do you see the team picking second celebrate when the team picking ahead of them drafts a potential ace, but shucky has to be thrilled that Von Turner, a once-in-a-lifetime catcher, fell to him at #2. His fielding/pitch calling look to be above-average, but his hitting projects to be nothing short of amazing. Extremely healthy, he should drastically improve his durability over the years and be an everyday backstop. Only 18 and with outstanding makeup, he should hit his projections and be a force for the next decade for the Banana Slugs.
Grade: A+
3. Montgomery Rebels select:
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Vic Mondesi, an 18-year old starting pitcher. Although he is nowhere near as polished as some of the other top SPs in the draft, Mondesi projects to be just as good as any of them. His agent assured the Rebels that Mondesi would sign if taken in the first round, but whether the Rebels get burned for drafting the signability risk at this spot remains to be seen. If he signs, he could anchor the Rebels rotation for years to come.
Grade: A if he signs, F- if he doesn't.
4. Fargo Freeze select:
Ken Wood, a 20-year old flame-throwing closer. Conventional wisdom says you don’t taken a reliever this high, but Wood is one of the most polished players on the board, has a wealth of upside, and could probably contribute at the ML-level immediately. The Freeze will probably let him have some time in the minors to improve before bringing him up to be the lockdown closer of the future.
Grade: A-
5. Oakland A’s select:
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Sid Walton, an 18-year old CFer with adequate speed. He looks to be a solid fielder who should hit for a high-OBP, but won’t provide many homeruns. A solid player, but the A’s might have left some value on the board here, and he is also a signability risk.
Grade: B if he signs, F- if he doesn’t.
6. San Juan Lobos select:
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Daryle Hewson, a 20-year old SP. After getting burned by signability issues with their 1st round pick last season (Ted Lomansey), the Lobos went with a slot-guy here. Hewson’s pitches leave a little something to be desired with the 6th pick, and he might have some control issues, but he should be an innings-eater and very effective against lefties and righties alike.
Grade: B-
7. Texas Primetimers select:
Jon Caufield, a speedy CFer, has already signed and reported to AA. Whether he becomes an average defender in CF or a gold glover in LF/RF, Caufield will find a place to play to get his bat in the lineup. Good eye and contact against lefties and righties, Caufield wowed the scouts with his amazing power. A healthy player with good patience and makeup, but might need to take a game off here or there to rest. Caufield will patrol the outfield in Texas for many seasons.
Grade: A
8. Los Angeles Dodgers select:
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John Lombardi, a high school SS, is another signability risk. If the Dodgers can get him under contract, he will be good value at this spot in the draft. Unpolished, he should be at least an average SS, or a gold glove 3B, and his bat is slightly above-average across the board in all facets. Like many high schoolers, he should improve his mediocre durability to match his stellar health.
Grade: A- if he signs, F is he doesn’t.
9. Florida Hammerheads select:
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Brad Robinson won’t be a SS, but has a great future at 3B. His contact and vs. lefties is average, he’s slightly above average vs. righties, and has an above-average eye, but the kid has a ton of power. He’ll need frequent rests due to some durability issues, but should be a solid player for the Hammerheads, if he doesn’t decide to finish his collegiate career with Siena.
Grade: A if he signs, D if he doesn’t.
10. Houston Hot Dogs select:
Kelvim Koch, a dominant high-school closer. With pinpoint control, he is above average vs. righties and will mow down lefties with ease. Pitch one is off the charts, and pitch two is above average. You might want something more than a quality RP with the 10th overall pick, but Koch was a safe pick.
Grade: B+
11. Charlotte Audacity:
Ignacio Cervantes, an 18-year old pitcher. The positives: his control is off the charts, he has two elite pitches and two more that are above average, he has stellar health, patience, and makeup, and he has already signed and reported to the rookie league team. The negatives: the stamina may not allow him to fill a spot in the major league starting rotation, and the splits are only average.
Grade: B
12. Cleveland Indians (Dot not Feather) select:
[NOT SCOUTED]
Alex James, an 18-year old high school pitcher.
Grade:
13. New York Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles select:
Luke Downs, a home-state starting pitcher. A workhorse with very good control, Downs will be above-average against lefties, but is only average against right-handed hitters. Two above average pitches to go with two below average pitches, Downs should find a spot in the back of the Turtles starting rotation.
Grade: B
14. Philadelphia Greyhounds select:
Dan Walls should be a solid 2B for Philly. His contact is only average, but his power and splits are slightly above average, and his eye is phenomenal. There is some question about his health and durability, but if he can stay on the field, he will produce.
Grade: A-
15. Richmond Raconteurs select
Tanner Gragg will either be a slightly below average 2B or a gold-glove LFer. His speed, contact, vs. left, and eye are all above average, and his vs. righties is slightly above average. He only has average power, but his other ratings are sufficient to overcome the lack of home runs. As was the case with pick #14, Gragg, may spend more time in the trainer’s room and/or on the disabled list than the average player, but when healthy, he’ll contribute to Richmond at the plate and in the field.
Grade: B
16. Boston Red Sox select:
Brutus Moreno has already reported to low-A. His range and glove may come up just short of expectations in CF, but he could still stick there or become an all-world RFer. A phenomenal eye at the plate, Moreno should be slightly above average vs. lefties and righties alike. He’ll hit for average power, and has above-average speed, but isn’t a big base-stealing threat. If a couple of earlier players were injury risks, then Moreno is a train-wreck waiting to happen. Not very durable, his health is dreadful.
Grade: C+
17. Philadelphia Greyhounds select:
Hugh Chamberlain, a high-school pitcher with borderline health and stamina. His control should be slightly above average, and he throws four pitches, the worst two of which will only be slightly below average. His splits vs. lefties and righties are both amazing, and should compliment his other attributes to make him a quality ML SP. A very nice pick for the Greyhounds second of two first-round selections.
Grade: A
18. Seattle Slowballers select:
[NOT SCOUTED]
Gary Gibbs, a high school pitcher,
Grade:
19. Rochester Comets select:
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Grant Mench, a high school starting pitcher, should help replenish the Comet’s pitching depth. The splits are only slightly above average, but he’ll eat a lot of innings, has very good control, and throws several quality pitches. Even though only 18, Mench is more polished than many of his teenaged counterparts, and should be able to rise quickly through the minors. Now the question for Rochester is whether Mench will sign a pro contract or take his game to the collegiate level.
Grade: B+ if he signs, C if he doesn’t, as the risk of only getting a comp pick next season is outweighed by the kid’s upside if he does sign.
20. Minnesota Maulers select:
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Clarence Glynn, a 21-year old right hander from Chadron State, has slightly above-average splits, very good control, and will be able to pitch deep into the game with his stamina. The pitch quality isn’t great, but he should find a spot in the middle/back of the Maulers rotation, unless he decides to play professional football…5’ 10”, 198 lbs, must be a kicker….
Grade: B if he signs, C- if he doesn’t, as this was a worthwhile risk at this point in the round.
21. Fresno Special Sauce selects:
Miguel Armas looks to be a top-notch relief pitcher for the Sauce. He has the stamina to pitch a lot of innings from the pen; his splits and control are excellent; he’ll induce a bunch of ground balls; and he throws three pitches, two of which are slightly above average with his top pitch being phenomenal. He has already reported to rookie league, and was excellent value at pick number 21.
Grade: A
22. Oakland A’s select:
Armondo Molina, the 2nd of the A’s first round picks, is a high school starting pitcher. Molina will be a workhorse in the rotation, has above-average control and vs. righties, and four of his five pitches are above average. He’ll struggle some vs. lefties, but this was a very nice pick at number 22.
Grade: A
23. Pittsburg Stealers select:
Edgardo Diaz, a 22-year-old position player. Very polished, he may not see time in the majors at SS, but can play just about any other position on the field. The health/durability are not stellar, and the contact/eye are only average. But the power is above-average, and he will pound lefties and hit above-average against righties. A nice pick at this point in the round.
Grade: B+
24. St. Louis Strongmen select:
Candy Davenport, a right handed workhorse with above average control, slightly above-average splits, and a four pitch arsenal, has already signed a contract and reported to the team’s rookie league. Davenport’s health is a concern, and two of his pitches are sub par. But overall a decent pick here.
Grade: B
25. Arizona Diamondbacks select:
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Paul Ramsey, a high school pitcher from Colorado. The health is a little concerning, and the patience and makeup are average. But he should be an innings-eater at the back of the rotation with phenomenal stamina. His splits and control are average, but he has two average pitches, one slightly above-average pitch, and one excellent pitch in his five different pitches in his repertoire.
Grade: B-
26. Scranton Blue Devils select:
[NOT SCOUTED]
Nerio Wall, an 18-year old pitcher.
Grade:
27. Kansas City Kings select:
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Adam Cash, an 18-year old hurler from Ohio. Cash’s health is only average, but he has good makeup and patience. His stamina is off the charts, and the splits are solidly in the above-average range. A four-pitch pitcher, his #1 pitch is outstanding, his #2 pitch is slightly above average, and his last two pitches are serviceable. Cash’s main problem appears to be his inability to find the strike zone, but if he can fix that flaw, he will be a solid ML player.
Grade: C
28. New York Yankees select:
Birdie Stein, a college SS, may have trouble making a name for himself at the position in the big leagues, but he should easily find a spot on the diamond somewhere. His eye, splits, and power are average, but his ability to make contact with the ball is a little above average. His health is a bit of a concern as well.
Grade: C+
29. Chicago White Sox select:
Yorrick Rigby, an unrefined 21-year-old reliever with very good upside. His control, splits, velocity, and first pitch all project to be outstanding. His second pitch is average and third pitch serviceable. He should be a solid RP for the Chi-Sox for many seasons.
Grade: B
30. Cincinnati Skyline select:
Dan Martin, a high schooler who will likely end up in a COF spot, 1B, or possibly as a slightly below-average 3B. Martin’s power is slightly subpar, but his eye, contact, and vs. righties are all above average, and he will feast on left-handed pitching. He has decent speed and base stealing ability, and was an excellent pick this late in the round.
Grade: A
31. Anaheim Angels select:
Ralph Helms, a very solid SP. Helms has great control and stamina. His splits are average, and he has a decent four-pitch arsenal at his disposal.
Grade: B-
32. Hartford Aristocrats select:
B.J. Baxter, a high school pitcher, is a very nice signing to close out round 1. His control is excellent, his splits are well above-average, and he looks to be healthy. Of his four pitches, two are above average, one is average, and only the fourth pitch is any sort of liability. One question about Baxter is whether his stamina will allow him to fit into the starting rotation, or whether he’ll be better suited for the bullpen. Either way, this was an excellent value at pick 32.
Grade: A
